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Effects of climate change on agricultural sector in Turkey: ARDL bounds test approach

Year 2022, Volume: 36 Issue: 1, 125 - 132, 31.01.2022

Abstract

Although there was a change in the climate of the world due to the effect of natural factors until the Industrial Revolution, the pace of change increased with the addition of the effects of human activities in addition to the effect of natural factors after the Industrial Revolution. The increase in climate change after the Industrial Revolution has caused notable changes on many factors of societies, including socio-economic, environmental, and cultural. One of the areas where the change is most intense is the agricultural sector, which is directly affected by the weather events. The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change in Turkey on the agricultural sector in the period 1985-2018 with the ARDL bounds test approach. In the analysis, it has been concluded that the change in the amount of precipitation and humidity affects the share of the agricultural sector in GDP positively and significantly, while the changes in the number of days covered with temperature and snow affect the share of the agricultural sector in GDP negatively and significantly.

References

  • Akram, N. (2012), Is Climate Change Hindering Economic Growth of Asian Economies?. Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 19 (2), 1-18.
  • Ali, S. Liu, Y. Ishaq, M. Shah, T. A.Ilyas, A. and Ud Din, I. (2017), Climate Change and Its Impact on the Yield of Major Food Crops: Evidence from Pakistan, Foods, (6), 39, 1-19.
  • Bayraç, H. N. (2016), Türkiye’de İklim Değişikliğinin Tarım Sektörü Üzerine Etkileri. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 11(1), ss: 23- 48.
  • Başoğlu, A. ve Telatar, O. M. (2013), İklim Değişikliğinin Etkileri: Tarım Sektörü Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama. Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (6), 7-25.
  • Belloumi, M. (2014), Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Eastern and Southern African Countries. African Growth and Development Policy Modeling Consortium, AGRODEP Working Paper 0003.
  • Brown, C. Meeks, R. Ghile, Y. and Hunu, K. (2010), An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Climate Variables on National Level Economic Growth, World Development Report, Policy Research Working Paper 5357.
  • Deressa, T. Hassan, R. and Poonyth, D. (2005), Measuring the Impact of Climate Change on South African Agriculture: The Case of Sugarcane Growing Regions. Agrekon, 44(4), 524-542.
  • Dickey, D. Fuller, W. (1979), Distribution of The Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Journal of The American Statistical Association, 74, 427 – 431.
  • Dickey, D. and Fuller, W. (1981), Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
  • Dumrul, Y. and Kılıçarslan, Z. (2017), Economic Impacts Of Climate Change On Agriculture: Empirical Evidence From ARDL Approach For Turkey. Journal of Business, Economics and Finance –JBEF, 6(4), 336-347.
  • Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. (1987), Cointegration And Error Correction: Representation, Estimation And Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
  • Farmer, G. T. and Cook, J. (2012), Climate Change Science: A Modern Synthesis. Volume 1 –The Physical Climate, Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg New York London.
  • Hayaloğlu, P. (2018), İklim Değişikliğinin Tarım Sektörü ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri. GÜSBEED, Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Elektronik Dergisi, 9(25), 51-62.
  • Johansen, S. (1988), Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economics Dynamic And Control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
  • Jönsson, M. (2011), The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in The Republic of Mauritius A Socio-Econometric Study on Mauritian Farming”. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Faculty of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences Department of Economics, Agricultural Programme–Economy Specialisation, Degreethesis No 645ISSN 1401-4084.
  • Kılıç, C. (2009), Küresel İklim Değişikliği Çerçevesinde Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Çabaları ve Türkiye. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 10(2), 19-41.
  • Kumar, A. Sharma, P. and Joshi, S. (2016), Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Land Productivity in Indian Crop Agriculture: An Evidence from Panel Data Analysis. J. Agr. Sci. Tech.Vol. 18, 1-13.
  • Lee, J. Nadolnyak, D. and Hartarska, V. (2012), Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Asian Countries: Evidence from Panel Study. Southern Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Birmingham, AL, February 4-7.
  • Loum, A. and Fogarassy, C. (2015), The Effects of Climate Change on Cereals Yield of Production and Food security in Gambia, Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce – APSTRACT, 9(4), 83-92.
  • Mano, R. and Nhemachena, C. (2007), Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculturein Zimbabwe. The World Bank Development Research Group Sustainable Ruraland Urban Development Team, Policy Research Working Paper 4292.
  • Molua, E. L. and Lambi, C. M (2006), The Economic Impact Of Climate Change On Agriculture In Cameroon. CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 17 Special Series on Climate Change and Agriculture in Africa ISBN 1-920160-01-9, Discussion Paper ISBN 1-920160-17-5.
  • Ochieng, J. Kirimi, L. and Mathenge, M. (2016), Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Agricultural Production: The case Of Small Scale Farmers in Kenya. NJAS - Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences, 77, 71–78.
  • Peseran, M. H. and Shin, Y. (1997), An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis, Symposium at the Centennial of RagnarFrisch.
  • Pesaran, M. H. Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001), Bounds Testing Approaches to The Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.
  • Phillips, P. and Perron, P. (1988), Testing For Unit Roots in Time Series Regression. Journal of Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Tarım ve Orman Bakanlığı Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü 2020. “Resmi İstatistikler”, 14 Mart 2020 tarihinde https://www.mgm. gov.tr/veridegerlendirme/il-ve-ilceler-istatistik.aspx?k=D adresinden alındı.
  • Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK). Haber Bültenleri. http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreÇizelge Arama.do?metod=search&araType=hb_x
  • Tun, O. A., Huylenbroeck, G. V. and Speelman, S, (2020), Measuring the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in the Dry Zone of Myanmar: A Ricardian Approach. Climate, 8(9), 1-15.
  • Wang, S. L., Ball, E., Nehring, R. Williams, R. and Chau, T. (2017), Impacts of Climate Change and Extreme Weather on U.S. Agricultural Productivity: Evidence and
  • Projection. National Bureau Of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper No. 23533.

Türkiye’de iklim değişikliğinin tarım sektörü üzerindeki etkileri: ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı

Year 2022, Volume: 36 Issue: 1, 125 - 132, 31.01.2022

Abstract

Dünyanın ikliminde Sanayi Devrimi’ne kadar doğal faktörlerin etkisine bağlı olarak değişim yaşanmasına rağmen Sanayi Devrimi’nden sonra doğal faktörlerin etkisine ilave olarak insan faaliyetlerinden kaynaklanan (fosil yakıt kullanımı, tarımsal etkinlikler ve sanayileşme gibi) etkilerinde eklenmesiyle birlikte değişimin hızı artış göstermiştir. Sanayi Devrimi sonrası iklim değişikliğinde meydana gelen artış günümüze kadar toplumların sosyo-ekonomik, çevresel ve kültürel olmak üzere birçok faktörü üzerinde önemli değişikliklere neden olmuştur. Değişimin en yoğun yaşandığı alanlardan birisi de hava olaylarından bire bir etkilenen tarım sektörüdür. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1985-2018 döneminde Türkiye’de meydana gelen iklim değişikliğinin tarım sektörü üzerindeki etkisini ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı ile analiz etmektir. Analizde, yağış miktarında ve nem oranlarında meydana gelen değişimin tarım sektörünün GSYİH içindeki payını pozitif ve anlamlı bir şekilde etkilediği, sıcaklık ve karla örtülü gün sayısında meydana gelen değişimlerin ise tarım sektörünün GSYİH içindeki payını negatif ve anlamlı bir şekilde etkilediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

References

  • Akram, N. (2012), Is Climate Change Hindering Economic Growth of Asian Economies?. Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 19 (2), 1-18.
  • Ali, S. Liu, Y. Ishaq, M. Shah, T. A.Ilyas, A. and Ud Din, I. (2017), Climate Change and Its Impact on the Yield of Major Food Crops: Evidence from Pakistan, Foods, (6), 39, 1-19.
  • Bayraç, H. N. (2016), Türkiye’de İklim Değişikliğinin Tarım Sektörü Üzerine Etkileri. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 11(1), ss: 23- 48.
  • Başoğlu, A. ve Telatar, O. M. (2013), İklim Değişikliğinin Etkileri: Tarım Sektörü Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama. Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (6), 7-25.
  • Belloumi, M. (2014), Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Eastern and Southern African Countries. African Growth and Development Policy Modeling Consortium, AGRODEP Working Paper 0003.
  • Brown, C. Meeks, R. Ghile, Y. and Hunu, K. (2010), An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Climate Variables on National Level Economic Growth, World Development Report, Policy Research Working Paper 5357.
  • Deressa, T. Hassan, R. and Poonyth, D. (2005), Measuring the Impact of Climate Change on South African Agriculture: The Case of Sugarcane Growing Regions. Agrekon, 44(4), 524-542.
  • Dickey, D. Fuller, W. (1979), Distribution of The Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Journal of The American Statistical Association, 74, 427 – 431.
  • Dickey, D. and Fuller, W. (1981), Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
  • Dumrul, Y. and Kılıçarslan, Z. (2017), Economic Impacts Of Climate Change On Agriculture: Empirical Evidence From ARDL Approach For Turkey. Journal of Business, Economics and Finance –JBEF, 6(4), 336-347.
  • Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. (1987), Cointegration And Error Correction: Representation, Estimation And Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
  • Farmer, G. T. and Cook, J. (2012), Climate Change Science: A Modern Synthesis. Volume 1 –The Physical Climate, Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg New York London.
  • Hayaloğlu, P. (2018), İklim Değişikliğinin Tarım Sektörü ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri. GÜSBEED, Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Elektronik Dergisi, 9(25), 51-62.
  • Johansen, S. (1988), Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economics Dynamic And Control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
  • Jönsson, M. (2011), The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in The Republic of Mauritius A Socio-Econometric Study on Mauritian Farming”. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Faculty of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences Department of Economics, Agricultural Programme–Economy Specialisation, Degreethesis No 645ISSN 1401-4084.
  • Kılıç, C. (2009), Küresel İklim Değişikliği Çerçevesinde Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Çabaları ve Türkiye. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 10(2), 19-41.
  • Kumar, A. Sharma, P. and Joshi, S. (2016), Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Land Productivity in Indian Crop Agriculture: An Evidence from Panel Data Analysis. J. Agr. Sci. Tech.Vol. 18, 1-13.
  • Lee, J. Nadolnyak, D. and Hartarska, V. (2012), Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Asian Countries: Evidence from Panel Study. Southern Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Birmingham, AL, February 4-7.
  • Loum, A. and Fogarassy, C. (2015), The Effects of Climate Change on Cereals Yield of Production and Food security in Gambia, Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce – APSTRACT, 9(4), 83-92.
  • Mano, R. and Nhemachena, C. (2007), Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculturein Zimbabwe. The World Bank Development Research Group Sustainable Ruraland Urban Development Team, Policy Research Working Paper 4292.
  • Molua, E. L. and Lambi, C. M (2006), The Economic Impact Of Climate Change On Agriculture In Cameroon. CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 17 Special Series on Climate Change and Agriculture in Africa ISBN 1-920160-01-9, Discussion Paper ISBN 1-920160-17-5.
  • Ochieng, J. Kirimi, L. and Mathenge, M. (2016), Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Agricultural Production: The case Of Small Scale Farmers in Kenya. NJAS - Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences, 77, 71–78.
  • Peseran, M. H. and Shin, Y. (1997), An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis, Symposium at the Centennial of RagnarFrisch.
  • Pesaran, M. H. Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001), Bounds Testing Approaches to The Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.
  • Phillips, P. and Perron, P. (1988), Testing For Unit Roots in Time Series Regression. Journal of Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Tarım ve Orman Bakanlığı Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü 2020. “Resmi İstatistikler”, 14 Mart 2020 tarihinde https://www.mgm. gov.tr/veridegerlendirme/il-ve-ilceler-istatistik.aspx?k=D adresinden alındı.
  • Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK). Haber Bültenleri. http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreÇizelge Arama.do?metod=search&araType=hb_x
  • Tun, O. A., Huylenbroeck, G. V. and Speelman, S, (2020), Measuring the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in the Dry Zone of Myanmar: A Ricardian Approach. Climate, 8(9), 1-15.
  • Wang, S. L., Ball, E., Nehring, R. Williams, R. and Chau, T. (2017), Impacts of Climate Change and Extreme Weather on U.S. Agricultural Productivity: Evidence and
  • Projection. National Bureau Of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper No. 23533.
There are 30 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Cüneyt Kılıç 0000-0003-0622-7145

Early Pub Date January 31, 2022
Publication Date January 31, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 36 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Kılıç, C. (2022). Türkiye’de iklim değişikliğinin tarım sektörü üzerindeki etkileri: ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 36(1), 125-132.

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