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Yıl 2023, Cilt: 22, 364 - 376, 01.09.2023
https://doi.org/10.55549/epstem.1351022

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Bohnhoff, M., Bulut, F., Dresen, G., Malin, P. E., Eken, T., & Aktar, M. (2013). An earthquake gap south of Istanbul. Nature Communications, 4(1), 1999.
  • Demircioglu, M. B., Erdik, M., Hancilar, U., Sesetyan, K., Tuzun, C., Yenidogan, C., & Zulfikar, A. C. (2009). Technical manual-earthquake loss estimation Routine ELERv1. 0. Bogazici University, Department of Earthquake Engineering, Istanbul, 133.
  • Durukal, E., Uskan, E., Sesetyan, K., & Demircioglu, M. B. (2002). Earthquake risk assessment for industrial facilities in Istanbul. Bogazici University, Department of Earthquake Engineering, Istanbul.

Economic Impacts of Expected Istanbul Earthquake: Scenario Generation

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 22, 364 - 376, 01.09.2023
https://doi.org/10.55549/epstem.1351022

Öz

It is difficult to make precise estimations about the time, location, and magnitude of earthquakes which can cause significant consequences such as massive casualties and economic losses. Although the earthquakes cannot be prevented, minimization of losses can be achieved with effective disaster management. In this study, four most likely scenarios that are put forward by the geological engineers and scientists are evaluated to illustrate the potential impacts of a possible earthquake. Therefore, effects of an earthquake on physical damage, sectoral growth and post-earthquake government expenditures, tax revenues, investments, imports, and exports are numerically estimated. Additionally, since Istanbul has an intense economic relations and workforce flow beyond its borders, it is evaluated as a whole with Kocaeli and Tekirdağ provinces. The impact of the earthquake is privatized on the basis of Istanbul, Kocaeli and Tekirdağ districts. Considering the location of the fault lines and length of breaks, it is thought that different districts would be affected by the earthquake in different degrees, and impacts of scenarios are created in this direction. Damage rates in different districts due to different magnitudes are predicted by taking 17 August 1999 Izmit Bay Earthquake as a basis. As a result of this study, the damage rates of the building stock and industrial facilities, number of casualties, sectoral and expenditure change rates in the districts of Istanbul, Tekirdağ and Kocaeli are determined. In addition, the change rates in physical, sectoral, and expenditure areas are also reflected on the rest of Türkiye. Thus, the results obtained from the scenarios will help to generate certain policy strategies after the earthquake and contribute to reducing economic, social, and physical damage.

Kaynakça

  • Bohnhoff, M., Bulut, F., Dresen, G., Malin, P. E., Eken, T., & Aktar, M. (2013). An earthquake gap south of Istanbul. Nature Communications, 4(1), 1999.
  • Demircioglu, M. B., Erdik, M., Hancilar, U., Sesetyan, K., Tuzun, C., Yenidogan, C., & Zulfikar, A. C. (2009). Technical manual-earthquake loss estimation Routine ELERv1. 0. Bogazici University, Department of Earthquake Engineering, Istanbul, 133.
  • Durukal, E., Uskan, E., Sesetyan, K., & Demircioglu, M. B. (2002). Earthquake risk assessment for industrial facilities in Istanbul. Bogazici University, Department of Earthquake Engineering, Istanbul.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Olasılık Teorisi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Mujgan Bilge ERIS
YEDITEPE UNIVERSITY
Türkiye


Cagla ALPARSLAN
YEDITEPE UNIVERSITY
Türkiye


Melis Almula KARADAYI
ISTANBUL MEDIPOL UNIVERSITY
Türkiye


Ayla ALKAN
BEYKENT UNIVERSITY
Türkiye


Duygun Fatih DEMIREL
ISTANBUL KULTUR UNIVERSITY
Türkiye


Eylul Damla GONUL-SEZER
YEDITEPE UNIVERSITY
Türkiye

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 28 Ağustos 2023
Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Eylül 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023Cilt: 22

Kaynak Göster

APA
ERIS, M. B., ALPARSLAN, C., KARADAYI, M. A., ALKAN, A., vd. (2023). Economic Impacts of Expected Istanbul Earthquake: Scenario Generation. The Eurasia Proceedings of Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics, 22, 364-376. https://doi.org/10.55549/epstem.1351022