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Analysis of the Efficiency of Precipitation on the Evolution of Agricultural Production in Upper-Casamance (South Senegal) between 1985 and 2018

Year 2020, Volume: 10, 1 - 11, 31.12.2020

Abstract

In Senegal, rainfall is the main factor affecting agricultural production. In Upper-Casamance, it is a major equator for the development of agriculture, makes farmers vulnerable, and leads to changes in farming systems. The objective of this study is to analyze the evolution of agricultural production over the last 34 years in Upper-Casamance and the impact of rainfall variability on yields. To this end, data on cereal production (millet, sorghum, corn, rice and fonio) and industrial production (groundnut, cotton and cassava) in tons between 1985-1986 and 2018-2019 from the Regional Directorate of Rural Development (RDRD) of Kolda and precipitation data over the same period acquired at ANACIM was used. Production data are processed on the basis of statistical tests, including descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, and simple linear regression. The calculation of rainfall data is based on the calculation of the annual average rainfall, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the number of rainy days per year, the average precipitation per day of rain, and the start and end date of the "agronomic" monsoon, and its duration. Analysis of the results showed an increase in agricultural production as rainfall conditions are good. The simple linear regression calculation for each product at the p<0.05 threshold indicated that rice, corn, groundnuts and cassava are the crops that depend significantly on the annual rainfall period. Analysis of the start and end dates showed that the length of the agronomic season (on average 112 days) appears to be favorable for the production of millet and groundnut.

References

  • ANSD. (2017). 2013 General Census of Population and Habitat, Agriculture and Livestock. Kolda Final Report, Edict. National Agency for Statistics and Demography, Dakar (Senegal), 90.
  • Balme, M., Galle, S., & Lebel, T. (2005). Start of the rainy season in the Sahel: variability at the hydrological and agronomic scales, analysis based on EPSAT Niger data. Secheresse, 16(1), pp. 15-22
  • Bodian, A. (2014). Characterization of recent temporal variability in annual precipitation in Senegal (West Africa). Physio-Géo, 8, pp. 297-312.
  • Dacosta, H., Coly, A., & Soumare P.O. (2002). Adequacy of water supply and demand: hydrological dynamics of the Anambé (Senegal). In: Orange Didier (ed.), Arfi Robert (ed.), Kuper M. (ed.), Morand Pierre (ed.), Poncet Yveline (ed.), Témé B. (pref.) Integrated management of natural resources in tropical flood zones. Paris (FRA); Bamako: IRD; CNRST, 395-410. (Colloquia and Seminars). GIRN-ZIT: Integrated Management of Natural Resources in Tropical Flood Zones: International Seminar, Bamako (MLI), 2000/06/20-23. ISBN 2-7099-1480-8
  • Descroix, L., Diongue Niang, A., Panthou, G., Bodian, A., Sane, Y., Dacosta, H., Malam Abdou, M., Vandervaere, J-P., & Quantin, G. (2015). Recent rainfall trends in West Africa across two regions: Senegal and the Middle Niger Basin. Climatology, 12, pp. 25-43.
  • Descroix, L., Genthon, P., Amogu, O., Rajot, J-L., Sighomnou, D., & Vauclin, M. (2012). Change in Sahelian Rivers hydrograph: The case of recent red floods of the Niger River in the Niamey region. Global Planetary Change, 98, 18-30.
  • Djaman, K., Balde, AB., Rudnick, DR., Ndiaye, O., & Irmak, S. (2017). Long-term trend analysis in climate variables and agricultural adaptation strategies to climate change in the Senegal River Basin. Int. J. Climatol. 37, pp. 2873–2888.
  • FAO. (2011). Overview of rice development in Senegal. http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/spid/docs/Senegal/Riziculture_etatdeslieux_SN.pdf
  • Fanchette, S. (1999). Colonization of sylvo-pastoral lands and land conflicts in Upper-Casamance. IIED, Coll. Pastoral Land Tenure, 13, 41.
  • Léauthaud, C., Demarty, J., Cappelaere, B., Grippa, M., Kergoat, L., Velluet, C., Guichard, F., Mougin, E., Chelbi, S., & Sultan, B., (2015). Revisiting historical climatic signals to better explore the future: prospects of water cycle changes in Central Sahel. Proc. IAHS, 371, pp.195–201.
  • Mballo, I., Sy, O., & Faye, C. (2019). Climatic variability and food production in Upper-Casamance (South-Senegal). Espace Géographique et Société Marocaine, pp.161-178.
  • Mckee, TB., Doesken, NJ., & Kleist, J. (1993). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Proceedings of the eight conference on applied climatology, Anaheim, California, Boston, American Meteorological Society, pp.179–184.
  • MEFS. (2011). 2011 Finance Act. Rapport, Ministry of Economy and Finance of Senegal, Dakar (Senegal), 134.
  • Ndiaye, O. (2018). Analysis of agricultural and trade policies in Senegal: food security and sovereignty compromised? Master in Environment, Université de Sherbrooke, 88.
  • Nouaceur, Z. (2020). The resumption of rains and the resurgence of floods in West Africa. Physio-Géo, 15, pp. 89-109.
  • WMO. (2012). Standard Precipitation Index User’s Guide. Weather-Climate-Water, WMO-N°1090, 25p
  • Roudier, P., Sultan, B., Quirion, P., & Berg, A. (2011). The impact of future climate change on West Africa crop yields: What does the recent literature say? Global Environment Change, 21, pp. 1073-1083.
  • Sagna, P. (2005). Climate dynamics and recent developments in western Africa. Thèse de Doctorat d’Etat Es Lettres, Département de Géographie, Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Tome 1, 270.
  • Sane, T., Diop, M., & Sagna, P. (2008). Study of the quality of the rainy season in Upper-Casamance (South Senegal). Sécheresse, 19(1), pp. 23-28.
  • Sarr, B., & Traoré, S. (2010). Impacts of climate change on agriculture. In Le Sahel face au changement climatique, monthly bulletin of the AGRHYMET Regional Centre, special issue, pp. 22-24
  • Sene, I.M. (2007). Impacts of climate change on agriculture in Senegal: climate dynamics, economics, adaptations, water balance modelling of groundnuts and millet. Doctoral thesis in Geography. University Cheikh Anta Diop of Dakar, 301 p.
  • Sidibe, M. (2005). Groundnut migrants. The conquest of the Pata Classified Forest. Casamance, Senegal. IRD Editions, Paris, 301.
  • Sivakumar, M.V.K. (1988). Predicting rainy season potential from the onset of rains in southern Sahelian and Sudanian climatic zones of West Africa. Agric. For. Meteorol, 42, 295–305.
  • Sultan, B. (2012). Global warming threatens agricultural productivity in Africa and South Asia. Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 041001.
Year 2020, Volume: 10, 1 - 11, 31.12.2020

Abstract

References

  • ANSD. (2017). 2013 General Census of Population and Habitat, Agriculture and Livestock. Kolda Final Report, Edict. National Agency for Statistics and Demography, Dakar (Senegal), 90.
  • Balme, M., Galle, S., & Lebel, T. (2005). Start of the rainy season in the Sahel: variability at the hydrological and agronomic scales, analysis based on EPSAT Niger data. Secheresse, 16(1), pp. 15-22
  • Bodian, A. (2014). Characterization of recent temporal variability in annual precipitation in Senegal (West Africa). Physio-Géo, 8, pp. 297-312.
  • Dacosta, H., Coly, A., & Soumare P.O. (2002). Adequacy of water supply and demand: hydrological dynamics of the Anambé (Senegal). In: Orange Didier (ed.), Arfi Robert (ed.), Kuper M. (ed.), Morand Pierre (ed.), Poncet Yveline (ed.), Témé B. (pref.) Integrated management of natural resources in tropical flood zones. Paris (FRA); Bamako: IRD; CNRST, 395-410. (Colloquia and Seminars). GIRN-ZIT: Integrated Management of Natural Resources in Tropical Flood Zones: International Seminar, Bamako (MLI), 2000/06/20-23. ISBN 2-7099-1480-8
  • Descroix, L., Diongue Niang, A., Panthou, G., Bodian, A., Sane, Y., Dacosta, H., Malam Abdou, M., Vandervaere, J-P., & Quantin, G. (2015). Recent rainfall trends in West Africa across two regions: Senegal and the Middle Niger Basin. Climatology, 12, pp. 25-43.
  • Descroix, L., Genthon, P., Amogu, O., Rajot, J-L., Sighomnou, D., & Vauclin, M. (2012). Change in Sahelian Rivers hydrograph: The case of recent red floods of the Niger River in the Niamey region. Global Planetary Change, 98, 18-30.
  • Djaman, K., Balde, AB., Rudnick, DR., Ndiaye, O., & Irmak, S. (2017). Long-term trend analysis in climate variables and agricultural adaptation strategies to climate change in the Senegal River Basin. Int. J. Climatol. 37, pp. 2873–2888.
  • FAO. (2011). Overview of rice development in Senegal. http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/spid/docs/Senegal/Riziculture_etatdeslieux_SN.pdf
  • Fanchette, S. (1999). Colonization of sylvo-pastoral lands and land conflicts in Upper-Casamance. IIED, Coll. Pastoral Land Tenure, 13, 41.
  • Léauthaud, C., Demarty, J., Cappelaere, B., Grippa, M., Kergoat, L., Velluet, C., Guichard, F., Mougin, E., Chelbi, S., & Sultan, B., (2015). Revisiting historical climatic signals to better explore the future: prospects of water cycle changes in Central Sahel. Proc. IAHS, 371, pp.195–201.
  • Mballo, I., Sy, O., & Faye, C. (2019). Climatic variability and food production in Upper-Casamance (South-Senegal). Espace Géographique et Société Marocaine, pp.161-178.
  • Mckee, TB., Doesken, NJ., & Kleist, J. (1993). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Proceedings of the eight conference on applied climatology, Anaheim, California, Boston, American Meteorological Society, pp.179–184.
  • MEFS. (2011). 2011 Finance Act. Rapport, Ministry of Economy and Finance of Senegal, Dakar (Senegal), 134.
  • Ndiaye, O. (2018). Analysis of agricultural and trade policies in Senegal: food security and sovereignty compromised? Master in Environment, Université de Sherbrooke, 88.
  • Nouaceur, Z. (2020). The resumption of rains and the resurgence of floods in West Africa. Physio-Géo, 15, pp. 89-109.
  • WMO. (2012). Standard Precipitation Index User’s Guide. Weather-Climate-Water, WMO-N°1090, 25p
  • Roudier, P., Sultan, B., Quirion, P., & Berg, A. (2011). The impact of future climate change on West Africa crop yields: What does the recent literature say? Global Environment Change, 21, pp. 1073-1083.
  • Sagna, P. (2005). Climate dynamics and recent developments in western Africa. Thèse de Doctorat d’Etat Es Lettres, Département de Géographie, Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Tome 1, 270.
  • Sane, T., Diop, M., & Sagna, P. (2008). Study of the quality of the rainy season in Upper-Casamance (South Senegal). Sécheresse, 19(1), pp. 23-28.
  • Sarr, B., & Traoré, S. (2010). Impacts of climate change on agriculture. In Le Sahel face au changement climatique, monthly bulletin of the AGRHYMET Regional Centre, special issue, pp. 22-24
  • Sene, I.M. (2007). Impacts of climate change on agriculture in Senegal: climate dynamics, economics, adaptations, water balance modelling of groundnuts and millet. Doctoral thesis in Geography. University Cheikh Anta Diop of Dakar, 301 p.
  • Sidibe, M. (2005). Groundnut migrants. The conquest of the Pata Classified Forest. Casamance, Senegal. IRD Editions, Paris, 301.
  • Sivakumar, M.V.K. (1988). Predicting rainy season potential from the onset of rains in southern Sahelian and Sudanian climatic zones of West Africa. Agric. For. Meteorol, 42, 295–305.
  • Sultan, B. (2012). Global warming threatens agricultural productivity in Africa and South Asia. Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 041001.
There are 24 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Engineering
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Aruna M Jarju

Boubacar Solly

Publication Date December 31, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020Volume: 10

Cite

APA Jarju, A. M., & Solly, B. (2020). Analysis of the Efficiency of Precipitation on the Evolution of Agricultural Production in Upper-Casamance (South Senegal) between 1985 and 2018. The Eurasia Proceedings of Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics, 10, 1-11.